HomeSpun Blogger Symposium IX
Homespun Symposium IX
What are your predictions for the elections in Iraq?
The elections will go as scheduled. In this first election, I would imagine that people will vote predominately down religious/faction lines. Shiaa's will vote for Shiaa's, Kurds for Kurds, and if the Sunni's decide to play...Sunni's for Sunnis. We'll just have to see how things work out.
Will there be violence?
Unfortunately, I believe that there will be a huge increase in violence in the days running up to the actual vote, but I think that the vote itself is setting up conditions that would make mass casualty attacks very likely. The concept of bringing everyone in a city to 10-20 different locations certainly puts lots of eggs all in one basket. For terrorists that want to make a statement, a polling place is definitely a tempting, lucrative target.
Somewhere along the path to the ballot box, there's going to be a throng of people either waiting to vote...or those that have just voted. The places where the large numbers congregate, will need to be watched/secured very carefully.
What will the government look like?
Probably made up of predominately Shia'as and Kurds. Sunnis need to make up their minds if they're going to have a hand in the future of Iraq. They might just be better off emigrating to Saudi Arabia with their brother Sunnis there.
Will it be legitimate, liberal, and capable of accomplishing anything?
They'll probably be as effective as our first administration was over 200 years ago. It will take some time for this democracy and freedom stuff to sink in.
And what effect will the election have on the U.S.?
I'm hoping that this will begin to show the naysayers that what we're trying to accomplish in the Islamic world is indeed possible. I think that the new freedoms bestowed upon the Iraqi people will continue an underlying movement we've heard about in Iran...where the younger Iranians believe that it's possible to enjoy the freedoms of the West...and still embrace Islam. I believe it too. And here is the rest of it.