HomeSpun Blogger Symposium IX
Homespun Symposium IX
What are your predictions for the elections in Iraq?
The elections will go as scheduled. In this first election, I would imagine that people will vote predominately down religious/faction lines. Shiaa's will vote for Shiaa's, Kurds for Kurds, and if the Sunni's decide to play...Sunni's for Sunnis. We'll just have to see how things work out.
Will there be violence?
Unfortunately, I believe that there will be a huge increase in violence in the days running up to the actual vote, but I think that the vote itself is setting up conditions that would make mass casualty attacks very likely. The concept of bringing everyone in a city to 10-20 different locations certainly puts lots of eggs all in one basket. For terrorists that want to make a statement, a polling place is definitely a tempting, lucrative target.
Somewhere along the path to the ballot box, there's going to be a throng of people either waiting to vote...or those that have just voted. The places where the large numbers congregate, will need to be watched/secured very carefully.
What will the government look like?
Probably made up of predominately Shia'as and Kurds. Sunnis need to make up their minds if they're going to have a hand in the future of Iraq. They might just be better off emigrating to Saudi Arabia with their brother Sunnis there.
Will it be legitimate, liberal, and capable of accomplishing anything?
They'll probably be as effective as our first administration was over 200 years ago. It will take some time for this democracy and freedom stuff to sink in.
And what effect will the election have on the U.S.?
I'm hoping that this will begin to show the naysayers that what we're trying to accomplish in the Islamic world is indeed possible. I think that the new freedoms bestowed upon the Iraqi people will continue an underlying movement we've heard about in Iran...where the younger Iranians believe that it's possible to enjoy the freedoms of the West...and still embrace Islam. I believe it too. And here is the rest of it.
posted by MajorDad @ 1/21/2005 08:59:00 AM
3 Comments:
My prediction for the election in Iraq :
The Iraqis will vote for a party that does not represent US interests, if any candidates are fielded that may go against the grain of the current occupation. It is likely that, as with other democratic elections elsewhere, the occupying forces may contest the validity of the results : possibly using the same arguments as used in certain other US elections, or similar themes. For example, intimidation of voters, selection of voting lists, proxy votes with people impersonating the dead, so on and so forth.
If the Iraqi Elections swings in favour of a pro-US figure, the election will inevitably be deemed to be a success, irrespective of any irregularities. It's not who votes, it's who counts the votes that matters.
The US forces will stay in for a period of, I estimate, at least several years from now, ensuring that elections go their way. I anticipate a slow slide after that withdrawl towards the rise of a faith-based government enforcing dominant religious dogma : the problem being the faith in question will not share the same values as that of the West.
It happened in Panama and Guatemala. It may happen again.
They will elect a slate of primarily Shiites and Kurds,most all of whom are technocrats,not religious figures. Sistani is from the "quietest" school of Shiite Islam,which means he does NOT believe in the Iranian model and the Kurds are as secular as we are.
They will request US forces leave Iraq when they are comfortable with their own security abilities. Probably after they request we exit,they will request we keep some air assets and some specialists with their battalions for mentoring,makes imminent good sense.
There is reason to believe the Shiites actually have at their disposal some fairly well trained and organized militia of large numbers (SCIRI&DAWA)that heretofore they have held out of the fight,allowing American soldiers to pay the price of helping crush the radical Sunnis and Sadr's goofs.
Long term,it is unavoidable the more rational Iraqis will appreciate the intervention,but it may be 10 years of Algerian stayle civil war,though I tend to think the religiousðnic demographics of Iraq promises quicker victory.
MajorDad, I'd say your answer is about as good a prediction as any.
We would do well to remember our own founding, I think. It took at least 8 years of bloody and divisive war to defeat the British. According to some counts, a full one-third of Americans were loyalists. We bickered and squabbled amongst ourselves so much that an observer would be forgiven for thinking we'd never pull it off.
Things didn't get a whole lot better even once we'd won. Our first attempt at government, under the Articles of Confederation, proved a diasaster. It wasn't until 1793 (ten years after we won the Revolutionary War) that we adopted the Constitution.
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